Markets across the Asia-Pacific region are poised for a weak opening as investors await pivotal economic reports from China and Japan, with data on retail sales, investment, and business sentiment set to shape near-term market direction.
- China’s November retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial output data to be released ahead of market open
- Japan’s Q4 Tankan survey expected to reflect corporate sentiment among large manufacturers
- Yen (JPY=X) and yuan (CNH=X) likely to see volatility based on data outcomes
- ASHR and regional equities (HSI, NKY) poised for cautious opening
- Data could influence central bank policy expectations in both nations
- Consumer discretionary, industrial, financials, and materials sectors most sensitive to results
Asian equities are expected to open lower on Monday, with benchmark indexes in Hong Kong and Japan facing downward pressure ahead of high-impact economic releases from China and Japan. The focus is squarely on China’s November retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial output figures, which will offer the first comprehensive view of domestic demand and capital expenditure trends in the final quarter of 2025. Analysts are particularly watching for signs of recovery in consumer spending, with expectations pointing to a slight rebound in retail sales compared to October’s 3.2% year-on-year contraction. Japan’s fourth-quarter Tankan survey, due for release at 08:50 GMT, will provide insights into corporate sentiment among large manufacturers. The survey has historically served as a leading indicator of capital investment and economic confidence. A significant improvement in the sentiment index—currently hovering near a five-year low—could support the yen’s recent rebound against the U.S. dollar, with JPY=X trading near 148.50 on Friday. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading may trigger renewed selling pressure on the yen. Currency markets are also reacting to the data calendar. The Chinese yuan, traded as CNH=X, has remained under pressure despite recent central bank interventions, reflecting concerns over structural slowdowns in property and export sectors. Meanwhile, the iShares China ETF (ASHR) has traded within a narrow range, signaling caution among investors ahead of the release. Financials, industrial, and materials sectors across the region are likely to see heightened volatility, as the data will determine whether stimulus measures continue to be justified. Market participants are closely monitoring both data sets for clues on central bank policies. A weak outlook from either economy could prompt further easing measures, affecting bond yields and currency valuations. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) and Hang Seng Index (HSI) are both expected to open lower, with overnight futures on the S&P 500 indicating a subdued start to the week.