China’s unexpected rebound in crude oil consumption is reshaping global energy markets, challenging long-standing forecasts of tepid demand growth. The surge, driven by industrial recovery and stimulus-fueled infrastructure activity, has lifted oil prices and reinvigorated market sentiment.
- China’s November crude oil imports reached 11.4 million barrels per day, up 12% YoY.
- China now accounts for nearly 40% of global oil demand growth in 2025.
- Brent crude (BZ=F) rose 5.3% in five days following the data release.
- WTI crude (CL=F) gained 4.8% amid renewed optimism in global demand.
- Energy ETF (XLE) surged 6.1% on the back of stronger demand expectations.
- Refiners across Asia increased procurement, signaling broader regional demand pickup.
China’s recent surge in crude oil imports has disrupted the prevailing narrative of weak global demand, with data showing a 12% year-on-year increase in November volumes. The country imported over 11.4 million barrels per day in the month, marking the highest level since mid-2023. This uptick is attributed to strong rebound in manufacturing activity, increased refinery utilization, and targeted government stimulus in infrastructure and urban development sectors. The shift is particularly notable given that international energy agencies had forecast flat or declining demand for 2025, citing economic slowdowns in Europe and sluggish growth in the U.S. China’s performance now accounts for nearly 40% of global oil demand growth this year, according to recent trade and energy flow analyses. As the world’s largest oil importer, its consumption patterns are a key barometer for global market stability. The impact on commodity markets has been immediate: Brent crude futures (BZ=F) rose 5.3% over a five-day period, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) gained 4.8%. The energy sector ETF (XLE) saw a 6.1% increase in value, outperforming broader indices. Oil exploration and production stocks in Asia and North America also registered strong gains, reflecting renewed investor confidence. This reversal in sentiment is affecting global supply chains, with refiners in India and Southeast Asia increasing procurement to meet rising regional demand. Oil exporters from the Middle East to Russia are reassessing export strategies, while hedge funds have adjusted positioning to reflect stronger demand expectations.