China remains insulated from the recent disruption in Venezuelan oil exports due to robust alternative supply sources and strategic stockpiles, with imports from key suppliers rising sharply in Q4 2025. The country’s diversified procurement strategy continues to buffer energy security concerns.
- China’s crude oil imports reached 11.2 million bpd in November 2025, up 4.7% YoY
- Venezuela’s oil output dropped 30% in November 2025 compared to pre-crisis levels
- Saudi Arabia supplied 2.4 million bpd to China in November—up 12% from prior year
- China’s strategic petroleum reserve reached 580 million barrels by end-November 2025
- New 1.5 million bpd crude supply agreement with Kazakhstan finalized in October 2025
- Brent crude averaged $78 per barrel in November 2025, within $76–$80 range
China has successfully mitigated the impact of ongoing disruptions in Venezuela’s oil exports, maintaining stable crude imports despite geopolitical volatility in the South American producer. While Venezuela’s output fell by 30% in November 2025 compared to pre-crisis levels, China’s crude oil imports rose by 4.7% year-on-year during the same period, reaching 11.2 million barrels per day (bpd). This growth reflects a strategic shift toward increased purchases from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, with Saudi Arabia supplying 2.4 million bpd in November—up 12% from the prior year. The resilience stems from China’s expanded strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), which stood at 580 million barrels by the end of November 2025, representing a 14% increase from the previous year. This buffer capacity allows Beijing to absorb short-term supply shocks without immediate market strain. Additionally, state-owned enterprises such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec have diversified their procurement agreements, securing long-term contracts with non-Venezuelan suppliers, including a new 1.5 million bpd deal with Kazakhstan finalized in October 2025. Market dynamics reflect broader trends in global oil trade. The shift away from Venezuelan crude—once a steady 300,000 bpd supplier to China—has been absorbed without price spikes, as global crude benchmarks such as Brent crude averaged $78 per barrel in November, within a narrow band of $76–$80. Refineries in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces reported no operational downtime, confirming uninterrupted feedstock availability. The situation underscores China’s evolving energy security model, prioritizing supply diversification and storage capacity over reliance on any single source. While the short-term outlook remains stable, long-term exposure to global political instability persists, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. Nonetheless, for now, China’s energy infrastructure and procurement strategy remain well-positioned to withstand regional disruptions.