Kevin Hassett has regained the top position in futures market odds to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, rising to a 41% probability after a temporary dip. His rival, former Fed governor Mark Warsh, briefly held a 46% edge before falling to 38%.
- Kevin Hassett’s nomination odds rose to 41% following a recent shift in market sentiment
- Mark Warsh briefly held the lead with 46% odds before dropping to 38%
- The change reflects evolving trader expectations based on political and economic signals
- No official nomination has been announced, and all figures are derived from real-time market pricing
- The market is currently pricing in a competitive race among several potential candidates
- A shift of 3–5 percentage points in odds is considered significant in this type of prediction market
Kevin Hassett has reclaimed the leading position in the market-based prediction of the next Federal Reserve chair, according to real-time odds tracked on a major U.S. derivatives platform. Hassett's odds rose to approximately 41% following a short-lived surge in support for former Fed governor Mark Warsh, who had briefly climbed to a 46% probability of nomination. Warsh's share subsequently declined to 38%, marking a shift in trader sentiment over the past 48 hours. The fluctuation underscores the market's sensitivity to political developments, economic indicators, and potential presidential administration priorities ahead of the 2025 transition period.