Tesla Shares Hit New High Amid Robotaxi Frenzy Despite Sluggish EV Sales

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) surged to a new all-time closing high of $312.45 on December 16, 2025, marking a 7.2% weekly gain and a 48% rally from its low in April 2025. The spike in valuation occurred despite the company reporting a 12% year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries, with 432,000 units shipped—below analyst estimates of 475,000. This performance contrasts with Tesla’s 2024 record of 1.8 million deliveries, indicating a significant slowdown in core EV demand. Investor sentiment shifted dramatically after Musk confirmed in a November 2025 update that Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing vehicle, dubbed ‘Cybercab,’ would debut at a special event in March 2026. The announcement reignited speculation about the potential for a high-margin, scalable mobility platform. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that robotaxi deployment could unlock $500 billion in long-term valuation upside, assuming fleet-scale autonomy and monetization by 2030. The rally also coincided with a $5 billion share buyback authorization announced in December, signaling confidence in capital return despite rising competition from BYD, Xiaomi, and traditional automakers entering the EV space. Tesla’s market cap now exceeds $1.1 trillion—up from $840 billion in October 2025—making it the second-most valuable public company globally behind Apple. Wall Street’s renewed optimism has broadened to include expectations of increased software revenue from Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, which grew 28% quarter-over-quarter to 1.4 million active users. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of growth, with some analysts warning that robotaxi timelines may be over-optimistic given regulatory and technical hurdles.