Global cocoa futures have fallen sharply in late 2025, with ICE Futures Europe prices dropping 30% since July, signaling surplus conditions. Despite this, retail chocolate prices remain elevated due to sustained manufacturing costs and inflationary pressures across supply chains.
- ICE cocoa futures fell 30% from July 2025 peak to $3,850/mt by December 15, 2025
- West African harvests rebounded, contributing to global supply increase
- Retail chocolate prices rose 12%–18% YoY in Q4 2025 despite falling input costs
- Forward procurement contracts delay cost savings from reaching consumers
- Manufacturers like Mondelez and Nestlé maintain stable margins amid input price drop
- Price correction in retail products expected within next 6–9 months
Cocoa futures on the ICE Futures exchange have tumbled by 30% from their peak in July 2025, reaching a low of $3,850 per metric ton by December 15, 2025—down from a high of $5,500 earlier in the year. This decline follows a significant recovery in production across West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for over 60% of global cocoa output. Harvests improved following favorable weather patterns and reduced pest infestations in recent quarters. Despite this downward trend in raw material pricing, consumer prices for premium and mass-market chocolate have not followed suit. In major European markets, average retail prices for standard milk chocolate bars rose by 12% year-over-year in Q4 2025, while artisanal brands saw increases of up to 18%. The disconnect stems from persistent logistics costs, rising energy prices in processing facilities, and higher labor expenses, all of which remained elevated even as cocoa input costs declined. A key factor is the lag between commodity price shifts and retail adjustments. Chocolate manufacturers typically lock in input costs through forward contracts, many of which were negotiated at higher levels during peak demand periods in early 2025. As a result, producers are still absorbing inflated procurement costs, delaying price reductions even as spot market prices fall. Market analysts estimate that it may take another 6 to 9 months before the full impact of lower cocoa prices filters into final product pricing. Meanwhile, large confectioners such as Mondelez International and Nestlé continue to report stable or increasing gross margins despite declining cocoa inputs, suggesting cost pass-through delays are being used strategically to protect profitability.