Long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those who have held their assets for over a year, are experiencing their lowest profit margins in over a month, signaling growing market stress. This shift may presage further downside in BTCUSD as sentiment weakens.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders' average profit margin fell to -0.6% on December 21, 2025, the lowest since November.
- BTCUSD trading at $58,720, down 8.3% from its December 10 peak of $64,000.
- 12.7% increase in long-term wallet-to-exchange transfers over the past seven days.
- Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment scheduled for December 26, 2025, expected to rise by 4.8%.
- Over 58% of circulating BTC is held in long-term wallets, signaling high concentration risk.
- Support at $56,000 is now under critical scrutiny, with a breakdown potentially triggering further declines.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders—those who acquired assets more than 12 months ago—are now operating at near-loss territory, with average profit margins plummeting to -0.6% as of December 21, 2025. This marks the lowest level since November 2025 and reflects a sharp reversal from the 4.2% average gains seen in early December. The contraction in unrealized profits indicates increasing pressure among core investors to exit positions or reduce exposure. The decline comes as BTCUSD trades at $58,720, down 8.3% from its recent peak of $64,000 on December 10. Market data shows a 12.7% increase in the volume of coins moving from long-term wallets to exchanges in the past week, suggesting growing readiness to sell. This behavior typically precedes downward price momentum in prior cycles, especially when institutional and whale activity intensifies. The current market environment is further strained by rising network hash rate volatility and reduced mining profitability. With Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment occurring on December 26, 2025, and projected to rise by 4.8%, miners may begin liquidating holdings to cover operational costs, amplifying downward pressure. These dynamics are especially concerning given that over 58% of all circulating BTC is currently held in wallets classified as long-term holders. Traders and analysts are now monitoring the $56,000 psychological support level closely. A breach could trigger algorithmic sell-offs and margin calls across leveraged positions, potentially accelerating the downtrend. The broader digital asset market has already reacted, with Ethereum falling 10.2% and altcoins underperforming relative to BTC over the same period.