Copper prices are approaching a record $12,000 per metric ton in late 2025, driven by sustained industrial demand, constrained supply, and accelerating investments in energy transition infrastructure. The rally underscores growing pressure on global metal markets.
- Copper prices approaching $12,000 per metric ton in late 2025, a record level.
- Year-on-year demand growth projected at 5.2%, driven by EVs and renewable energy.
- Global copper production rising just 1.8%, creating a supply deficit.
- COMEX copper contract (HG=F) showing volatility above 4% in December 2025.
- Long-term supply agreements now being signed above $10,500 per ton.
- Ripple effects seen in cobalt (CC=F), aluminum, and nickel markets.
Copper futures have climbed to within striking distance of $12,000 per metric ton by the end of 2025, marking a significant milestone in the metal’s price trajectory. This level represents a 38% increase from the 2024 average of approximately $8,700 and reflects a structural shift in global supply-demand dynamics. The benchmark COMEX copper contract, tracked as HG=F, has seen daily volatility exceed 4% in December as traders position for a potential breakout above $12,000, a threshold not seen since the early 2011 commodity boom. The surge is underpinned by strong demand from electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, renewable energy installations, and grid modernization projects, particularly in China, the European Union, and North America. Global copper consumption is projected to reach 32 million metric tons in 2025, up 5.2% year-on-year, according to industry estimates. At the same time, new mine output growth has lagged behind demand, with global production rising only 1.8% despite a 6.5% increase in ore processing costs. This imbalance has exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks and elevated inventory levels at major exchanges. The rally has triggered a broader re-pricing of industrial metals. Cobalt futures (CC=F) have risen 22% over the past six months, while aluminum and nickel prices have also seen upward pressure. Market participants are increasingly factoring in copper’s role as a bellwether for global infrastructure spending and decarbonization efforts. Companies in the EV sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are already securing long-term supply agreements at premiums above $10,500 per ton to lock in availability. The price run-up is also influencing macroeconomic outlooks, with central banks monitoring inflation risks linked to higher input costs in manufacturing and construction. Industrial producers in Asia and Europe are re-evaluating production schedules, and some are shifting to alternative materials or increasing recycling efforts to manage exposure. As 2026 approaches, the market will closely watch new mine developments in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia for signs of supply relief.