Global wheat prices climbed sharply in early December amid escalating concerns over supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. Traders and analysts point to recent attacks on shipping lanes as a key driver of volatility.
- Wheat futures rose 3.2% to $7.84 per bushel on CBOT
- Black Sea exports represent 18% of global wheat trade
- Ukraine’s export volume down 12% YoY in the 2025-26 season
- Freight rates from Black Sea to Mediterranean increased 19% in November
- IGC lowered 2025-26 global wheat output forecast by 2.3 million metric tons
- Flour and bread producers report input cost increases up to 7%
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 3.2% to $7.84 per bushel by mid-week, marking the highest level since March 2024. The surge followed reports of multiple incidents targeting grain-carrying vessels near Ukrainian ports, particularly near Odesa and Pivdenne. These events have raised alarms about the reliability of Black Sea exports, which account for nearly 18% of global wheat trade. The International Grains Council revised its forecast for 2025-26 global wheat output downward by 2.3 million metric tons, citing both weather-related yield reductions in Europe and logistical constraints in Eastern Europe. Ukraine’s export volume during the current season has already declined by an estimated 12% compared to the same period last year, according to independent shipping data. Market participants are now factoring in higher insurance premiums and rerouting costs, with freight rates for Black Sea-to-Mediterranean routes increasing by 19% in November. Major importers, including Egypt, Turkey, and several North African nations, are actively seeking alternative suppliers, primarily from Argentina and the United States. The spike in prices is also affecting downstream sectors, with flour and bread producers across Southeastern Europe reporting input cost increases of up to 7%. Financial markets reacted swiftly, with agricultural commodity ETFs posting gains of over 5% in two trading sessions.