Nvidia Stock Nears Critical Level as China Chip Shipment Data Sparks Trading Interest

Nvidia's shares have climbed toward a key resistance level following new data indicating increased chip shipments to China during Q4 2025, despite ongoing export controls. The movement coincides with reports that Chinese hyperscalers accelerated inventory restocking ahead of anticipated regulatory shifts, supporting stronger-than-expected demand for Nvidia's H100 and B100 accelerators. Recent shipment volumes show a 17% month-over-month increase in NVDA’s AI chip deliveries to mainland China, according to internal logistics tracking from major distributors. This uptick contrasts with earlier market expectations of stagnation due to U.S. export restrictions. Meanwhile, AMD (AMD) has seen a modest gain in its data center GPU share, though it remains well behind Nvidia in high-performance inference workloads. The trend highlights the growing complexity of global semiconductor trade: while U.S. policy restricts direct exports of advanced chips, indirect pathways via third-party partners continue to enable flow. TSMC (TSM), which manufactures most of Nvidia’s cutting-edge GPUs, reported a 9% rise in production capacity utilization linked to AI chip orders, signaling robust underlying demand even under regulatory strain. Investors now face a strategic decision—whether to buy into Nvidia at current levels, where valuation metrics reflect strong earnings momentum but also elevated risk premiums tied to geopolitical volatility. Technical indicators suggest a breakout above $1,050 per share could trigger algorithmic buying, while failure to sustain momentum may prompt profit-taking. The outcome hinges not only on shipment trends but also on future regulatory clarity. Any tightening of export enforcement could disrupt supply chains, while eased restrictions might unlock further upside for NVDA and related semiconductor suppliers.