Gold Holds Steady Ahead of Major Commodity Index Rebalancing

Gold futures on the Comex exchange traded within a narrow range, holding near $2,035 per ounce, as investors awaited the scheduled rebalancing of major commodity indices. The adjustment, set to take effect in early February, is expected to trigger passive trading flows of approximately $1.2 billion into the precious metal. This comes amid growing speculation that institutional investors may reallocate from equities to commodities ahead of a broader market rotation. The stability in gold follows a recent uptick in demand from central banks, with official purchases totaling 145 tonnes in the final quarter of 2025, according to preliminary data. This marks the highest quarterly volume since 2021 and underscores the metal’s ongoing appeal as a non-sovereign reserve asset. Meanwhile, global mining output rose by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, with major producers including Newmont Corporation and Barrick Gold reporting higher throughput from operations in Nevada and Western Australia. Market analysts note that the upcoming index rebalancing could amplify price volatility in the near term. If the benchmark MSCI Commodity Index increases its weight in gold by 1.2 percentage points, it may prompt passive inflows that could push prices toward $2,080 in the coming weeks. Conversely, any delay or reduction in the rebalancing could lead to short-term profit-taking. Traders are also monitoring U.S. consumer price data due for release Thursday, which may influence Federal Reserve rate expectations. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could delay anticipated rate cuts, pressuring gold, which does not yield interest. The impact on gold-related ETFs, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), could be significant, with GLD holding 1,143 tonnes as of January 6, 2026.