Crude oil futures rose slightly on Tuesday as market participants assessed potential shifts in U.S. regulatory control over Venezuela’s oil operations. The move follows undisclosed discussions between Washington officials and state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) regarding export permissions and refining capacity.
- Brent crude rose to $84.65 per barrel, a 0.6% gain.
- WTI crude reached $81.20, up 0.5%.
- Discussions involve potential export licenses for up to 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude.
- Projected combined supply increase from Venezuela could reach 1.2 million barrels per day by mid-2026.
- Houston Ship Channel refining utilization rose 12% in January 2026.
- Conditions on governance and transparency may delay full resumption of exports.
Global oil benchmarks edged higher Tuesday, with Brent crude settling at $84.65 per barrel, a 0.6% increase from the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $81.20, up 0.5%. Traders cited growing speculation over the U.S. government’s potential to exert greater influence on Venezuela’s oil sector, particularly concerning the resumption of exports through U.S.-licensed channels. The market focus intensified after internal government documents revealed negotiations between U.S. Energy Department officials and PDVSA executives during a closed-door meeting in December 2025. Though no formal agreement was announced, the discussions centered on the restoration of export licenses for up to 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, pending compliance with new environmental and transparency standards. Analysts note that a resumption of limited exports could add approximately 1.2 million barrels per day to global supply by mid-2026, potentially easing tightness in the Atlantic basin. However, uncertainty remains over whether the U.S. will impose conditions tied to governance reforms and the handling of state assets, which could delay implementation beyond initial projections. Refiners in Houston and Corpus Christi, which have historically processed Venezuelan crude, are already adjusting their procurement strategies. The Houston Ship Channel has seen a 12% increase in refining capacity utilization since early January, signaling readiness to absorb additional Venezuelan crude if export approvals are granted.