Global nickel prices fell further on Thursday as Indonesia delayed its long-awaited clarification on planned production cuts, intensifying market uncertainty. The move unsettled traders and mining firms reliant on stable policy signals.
- LME three-month nickel fell 3.2% to $17,480 per metric ton
- Indonesia postponed announcement on proposed 50% raw nickel export cut
- PT Vale Indonesia shares dropped 4.1% on market reaction
- Baowu Steel Group expressed cautious outlook on nickel procurement
- Market fears of oversupply if policy clarity delayed beyond February
- Potential price drop below $17,000 if demand from EV battery sector remains weak
Nickel futures dropped 3.2% on the London Metal Exchange, marking the second consecutive session of losses following Indonesia's announcement that it would postpone its official statement on output restrictions. The delay comes amid growing speculation that Jakarta may scale back or restructure proposed limits on raw nickel exports, a key policy shift expected to reshape global supply dynamics. The benchmark LME three-month nickel contract settled at $17,480 per metric ton, its lowest level since late November. The 2025-2026 policy framework for nickel exports, initially signaled to reduce unprocessed output by 50% by 2026, has been a focal point for miners and smelters worldwide. With the delay, investors have grown wary of potential market oversupply, especially as new nickel projects in the Philippines and Brazil advance. Indonesia’s Ministry of Industry confirmed the postponement due to internal review of the impact on domestic refining capacity and regional trade flows. The extended uncertainty has affected major players in the sector. PT Vale Indonesia, the country’s largest nickel miner, saw its shares fall 4.1% in Jakarta trading, while Chinese smelter Baowu Steel Group reported cautious sentiment toward future procurement contracts. Analysts note that without clear policy guidance, global nickel inventory levels at major exchanges could rise, potentially pushing prices below $17,000 if demand from electric vehicle battery producers fails to strengthen. Market participants are now awaiting a revised timeline, with expectations high that the official announcement will be made by mid-February. Until then, volatility is expected to persist across nickel-linked derivatives and equities in Asia and Europe.