The U.S. trade deficit fell to $56.8 billion in November 2025, the narrowest level since January 2009, driven by a 3.2% decline in imports. Exports dipped slightly but the drop in import volumes was more pronounced, signaling reduced demand for foreign goods.
- U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $56.8 billion in November 2025
- Smallest deficit since January 2009
- Imports dropped 3.2% to $335.9 billion
- Exports declined 0.6% to $279.1 billion
- Non-auto imports fell 4.1%, auto imports down 2.3%
- Market reaction suggests increased likelihood of Fed rate cut in March 2026
The U.S. trade deficit shrank significantly in November 2025, narrowing to $56.8 billion, the smallest since January 2009, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The improvement came amid a 3.2% month-over-month decline in imports, which fell to $335.9 billion, while exports edged down to $279.1 billion, a 0.6% decrease from October. The gap between imports and exports tightened as global supply chain adjustments and cooling domestic demand contributed to lower foreign purchases. The reduction in import volumes was particularly notable in machinery, industrial supplies, and consumer goods, with non-auto imports dropping 4.1% and auto imports falling 2.3%. This reflects a broader trend of reduced consumer spending on foreign-made items, as inflation pressures and higher interest rates continue to influence household budgets. Meanwhile, export performance remained relatively stable, with agricultural exports and pharmaceuticals showing modest gains, though energy exports declined slightly due to lower crude oil prices. Market participants interpreted the data as a sign of a potential shift in U.S. trade dynamics, with implications for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. A narrowing trade gap could reduce upward pressure on the dollar and support domestic manufacturing. Investors closely monitored the figures ahead of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with market pricing indicating a 62% chance of a rate cut in March 2026. The data also raised questions about the sustainability of the current trend. Analysts caution that the decline in imports may reflect temporary inventory adjustments rather than structural changes in consumption patterns. Nevertheless, the improvement in the trade balance is one of several indicators suggesting a moderation in overall economic expansion, with real GDP growth projected at 1.8% for the fourth quarter of 2025.