BNP Paribas strategist Robson asserts that global supply dynamics for commodity spreads are under control, with inventory levels and logistical capacity preventing systemic disruptions. The outlook reflects stable trade patterns despite regional geopolitical pressures.
- Global crude oil inventories at 3.2 billion barrels in December 2025, up 4.7% YoY
- Wheat stocks reached 285 million metric tons in early 2026, 12% above five-year average
- Transportation costs rose 6.3% YoY in Q4 2025 but remain within historical norms
- Brent-WTI spread volatility dropped 18% since mid-2025
- Chicago-Kansas City wheat spread volatility declined 14% over same period
- Regional bottlenecks observed but not causing systemic spread disruptions
Global supply conditions for key commodity spreads remain manageable, according to Robson, a senior strategist at BNP Paribas. He cited ongoing adjustments in shipping routes and inventory buffers as critical factors maintaining equilibrium across major trade corridors. Despite recent volatility in energy and agricultural markets, physical supply chains have absorbed shifts without causing widespread shortages or price spikes. Robson noted that global crude oil inventories stood at 3.2 billion barrels in December 2025, up 4.7% from the previous year's average, signaling adequate cushion against demand fluctuations. In the grain sector, global wheat stocks reached 285 million metric tons in early 2026—12% above the five-year average—supporting stable export flows from the Black Sea and North America. These figures suggest that storage and logistics infrastructure continue to absorb supply shocks effectively. The strategist emphasized that while certain regional bottlenecks—such as delays in Suez Canal transit and port congestion in Southeast Asia—have created localized imbalances, these have not translated into systemic spread distortions. Transportation costs for major commodity routes rose 6.3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, but remain within historical ranges, indicating that market participants are adapting through re-routing and inventory planning. Financial markets have reacted with relative calm, with spread volatility indices for crude (Brent-WTI) and wheat (Chicago-Kansas City) showing decreases of 18% and 14% respectively since mid-2025. This stability has benefited traders, commodity producers, and import-dependent economies, particularly in Europe and East Asia, where import costs are sensitive to spread movements.