Global commodity markets posted strong gains in January 2026, with crude oil, soybeans, and copper leading gains amid supply constraints and rising demand. The S&P GSCI Index rose 8.7% month-over-month, reflecting broad-based strength across raw materials.
- Brent crude rose 14.3% in January 2026 to $92.60 per barrel
- Soybean futures climbed 12.5% to $13.45 per bushel
- Copper futures increased 11.8% to $9,430 per metric ton
- S&P GSCI Index gained 8.7% in January, its best monthly gain since 2022
- Commodity-linked ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in January inflows
- U.S. Fed rate cut probability dropped to 60% for September 2026
Commodity prices surged in early 2026, with crude oil futures climbing 14.3% on supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and OPEC+ production cuts. Brent crude reached $92.60 per barrel by January 10, up from $81.10 at the start of the month. Agricultural markets also advanced, as soybean futures rose 12.5% amid drought conditions in Brazil and stronger-than-expected Chinese import demand, pushing prices to $13.45 per bushel. Wheat futures gained 9.2%, supported by crop failures in the Black Sea region and restrictive export policies from key producers. The rally extended to industrial metals, with copper futures increasing 11.8% due to surging electric vehicle production and infrastructure spending in China and the U.S. LME three-month copper hit $9,430 per metric ton, the highest level since mid-2023. Aluminum and nickel also posted double-digit gains, driven by energy costs and tighter supply from Indonesia and Russia. The S&P GSCI Index, a benchmark for commodity performance, recorded an 8.7% increase in January, marking its best monthly return since June 2022. Energy commodities contributed 5.3 percentage points to the gain, while agriculture accounted for 2.1 points. Industrial metals added 1.3 points, underscoring the broad-based nature of the rally. Market participants are re-evaluating inflation forecasts as commodity strength pressures central bank policy. The Federal Reserve’s dot plot suggests a 60% chance of a rate cut by September 2026, down from 75% in December, as core PCE inflation remains elevated. Investors in commodity-linked ETFs saw inflows of $2.4 billion in January, the highest monthly total since early 2024.