The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) surged 64% in 2025, driven by heightened global uncertainty and rising inflation. Historical data from past bull markets in gold suggest a potential for continued gains in 2026, with precedent for similar post-rally performance. Investors are evaluating whether to position in GLD amid elevated valuations and macroeconomic volatility.
- GLD posted a 64% return in 2025, with its share price rising from $182.30 to $299.50.
- Gold spot prices (XAU/USD) increased from $1,850 to $2,975 per ounce during the same period.
- Historical bull runs show 12%–20% pullbacks after 60%+ rallies, followed by further gains.
- Institutional inflows into GLD reached $14.2 billion in Q4 2025.
- The gold-to-stock ratio hit levels not seen since 2011, indicating strong relative value.
- Real yields remain negative, supporting long-term gold demand despite recent appreciation.
The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), a benchmark for gold exposure in U.S. markets, recorded a 64% increase in value during 2025. This rally followed a sustained period of geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and persistent inflationary pressures, all of which bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. The ETF’s performance closely tracked the spot price of gold, which rose from $1,850 per ounce at the start of the year to over $2,950 by December 31, 2025, as measured by the XAU/USD benchmark. Historical analysis of prior gold bull markets—such as the 2009–2011 and 2016–2018 cycles—shows that after a 60% or greater rally, gold prices often experienced a 12% to 20% pullback before continuing upward. In the most comparable period, gold rose 67% from 2016 to 2018 before surging another 23% in 2019. If current trends follow this pattern, GLD could see further appreciation in 2026, particularly if inflation remains above central bank targets or if recession risks intensify. The XAU/USD spot price reached a 2025 high of $2,975 on December 20, and the gold-to-stock ratio reached levels not seen since 2011, signaling strong relative performance. Meanwhile, the GLD ETF’s net asset value (NAV) climbed to $299.50 per share by year-end, up from $182.30 at the beginning of 2025. These movements reflect growing institutional interest, with ETF inflows totaling $14.2 billion in the final quarter alone. Market participants are assessing whether GLD’s recent gains have priced in future risks. While technical indicators suggest the ETF may be overbought, long-term fundamentals—central bank gold accumulation, currency devaluation concerns, and real yields remaining negative—support continued demand. Investors in commodities and diversified portfolios may consider strategic allocations to GLD, especially in anticipation of broader macroeconomic shifts.