BMO Capital Markets and KeyBanc Capital Markets reaffirm their positive outlook on Vistra Corp (VST) after the company's completion of its $4.3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, a move expected to strengthen its clean energy portfolio and long-term cash flow visibility.
- Vistra completed the $4.3 billion acquisition of Cogentrix Energy in January 2026.
- Cogentrix brings 10,500 MW of generation capacity, including 6,200 MW of natural gas and over 1,000 MW of battery storage.
- Analysts project 8% to 10% EPS accretion by FY2027 and 15% annual EBITDA growth through 2028.
- Vistra anticipates a 20% reduction in Scope 1 emissions by 2029 versus 2022 levels.
- VST shares rose 3.2% post-announcement, outpacing the S&P 500 Utilities Index.
- A $1.2 billion refinancing in December 2025 eased near-term debt pressures.
Vistra Corp (VST) has maintained favorable analyst sentiment following the closing of its $4.3 billion purchase of Cogentrix Energy, a leading independent power producer with a diversified fleet of natural gas and battery storage assets. The transaction, finalized in early January 2026, adds approximately 10,500 megawatts of generation capacity to Vistra’s operations, including over 6,200 MW of natural gas facilities and more than 1,000 MW of utility-scale battery storage. This expansion underscores Vistra’s strategic shift toward flexible, low-carbon dispatchable resources amid evolving U.S. energy market dynamics. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets and KeyBanc Capital Markets cite the deal’s accretive potential for adjusted earnings per share, projecting near-term EPS accretion of 8% to 10% by fiscal year 2027. They highlight improved long-term revenue stability due to the addition of contracted and merchant-generation assets that enhance operational diversification. Vistra’s adjusted EBITDA is estimated to grow by approximately 15% annually through 2028 as a result of the integration. The acquisition strengthens Vistra’s position in key regional markets, particularly in the PJM and ERCOT zones, where demand for peaking and grid support services continues to rise. The move also accelerates Vistra’s carbon reduction commitments, with Cogentrix’s existing clean energy assets contributing to a projected 20% reduction in Scope 1 emissions by 2029 compared to 2022 levels. Investors responded positively, with VST shares rising 3.2% in early trading following the announcement, outperforming the broader S&P 500 Utilities Index, which gained only 0.7% during the same period. The deal’s execution was supported by a $1.2 billion refinancing package secured in December 2025, reducing near-term debt maturities and improving balance sheet flexibility.