Unrest in Iran has intensified, with over 1,200 reported arrests and more than 200 fatalities since late 2025, prompting heightened scrutiny from international markets. The crisis is testing geopolitical stability across the Middle East and affecting energy pricing and regional trade flows.
- Over 1,200 arrests and 200+ fatalities reported in Iran since late 2025
- Iran’s oil production dropped to 2.4 million barrels per day in early 2026
- Brent crude rose 6.3% on January 12, 2026, amid supply concerns
- Iranian rial depreciated 21% against the U.S. dollar in 30 days
- EU and U.S. officials preparing expanded sanctions and diplomatic consultations
- Regional refugee flows increased by 17% in Iraq during January 2026
Protests in Iran have surged since late 2025, driven by economic hardship and political repression, with official figures indicating more than 1,200 arrests and over 200 deaths. The unrest, primarily concentrated in Tehran, Mashhad, and Shiraz, reflects deepening public dissatisfaction with inflation exceeding 47% and unemployment near 16%, according to national statistics. International observers note a marked increase in digital suppression, with internet access restricted in 14 provinces as of January 2026. The crisis has triggered a ripple effect across global markets. Crude oil benchmarks, including Brent crude, rose by 6.3% in early trading on January 12, 2026, as fears mounted over potential disruptions to oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Iran’s daily oil production has dropped to approximately 2.4 million barrels, down from 3.8 million in early 2024, due to sanctions and internal instability. The volatility has also impacted regional currencies, with the Iranian rial depreciating 21% against the U.S. dollar in the past 30 days. Financial markets in Europe and North America have reacted with caution. The FTSE 100 and DAX 40 indices both declined by 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, on January 12, as investors reassessed risk exposure to Middle Eastern supply chains. Energy firms with operations in the region, including TotalEnergies and Royal Dutch Shell, faced a 3% to 4% drop in share value amid revised risk assessments. The geopolitical strain is also influencing diplomatic dialogues. The European Union has initiated emergency consultations, while U.S. Treasury officials have signaled potential sanctions expansion targeting Iranian financial institutions. Regional allies such as Turkey and Iraq are observing developments closely, with Iraq reporting a 17% uptick in border traffic from Iranian refugees in January.