Major Brokerages Lower Price Targets on The Progressive Corporation Amid Industry-Wide Softening Trends

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has seen its stock valuation reassessed by three major investment banks following a broader reassessment of the U.S. P&C insurance landscape. Evercore ISI reduced its price target to $165 from $185, Bank of America cut its forecast to $160 from $175, and JPMorgan lowered its target to $158 from $172. These adjustments reflect growing concerns over rising claim frequencies, inflationary pressures on repair costs, and tightening underwriting margins. The downward revisions come amid a series of quarterly results from major insurers indicating persistent challenges in maintaining premium growth relative to escalating loss ratios. Progressive reported a 6.2% increase in net loss ratio in Q4 2025, rising to 73.8%—a level that exceeds the 70% threshold signaling underwriting stress. Combined with a 4.1% year-over-year decline in new policy volume in the personal lines segment, the company’s earnings trajectory has become more uncertain. Market reaction has been muted but cautious, with PGR’s stock trading at $148.20 as of January 10, 2026, representing a 10.2% discount to the pre-revision average price target across the three firms. Analysts note that while Progressive’s digital-first model and strong customer retention offer a competitive edge, macroeconomic headwinds and elevated catastrophe losses are expected to continue pressuring profitability through 2026. The move affects institutional investors, insurers, and long-term holders of PGR, particularly those relying on dividend growth and stable earnings. The broader P&C insurance sector, which includes Allstate (ALL) and State Farm (private), has seen similar downward adjustments, signaling a sector-wide recalibration of risk and return expectations.