Morgan Stanley has lowered its price target on Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) to $18 from $26, citing near-term clinical and execution risks, while reaffirming a constructive view on the broader U.S. small- to mid-cap biotechnology sector. The shift reflects cautious optimism amid evolving pipeline dynamics.
- Morgan Stanley reduced TNYA’s price target to $18 from $26
- TNYA’s stock closed at $23.14 on January 10, 2026
- The firm maintains a 'positive' rating on TNYA despite the downgrade
- Over 65% of U.S. small- to mid-cap biotech stocks have posted gains in the last 12 months
- The biotech sector’s performance is increasingly tied to late-stage clinical progress
- Upcoming data from the 2026 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference is a key near-term catalyst for TNYA
Morgan Stanley has revised its price target for Tenaya Therapeutics (TNYA) down to $18 per share, a reduction of approximately 31% from its prior $26 target. The move follows the company's recent phase 2 trial data readouts for its lead asset in neurodegenerative diseases, which showed modest efficacy improvements and delayed timelines for key regulatory milestones. The firm emphasized that while the underlying science remains promising, execution risks in trial design and patient recruitment have increased near-term uncertainty. Despite the downbeat view on TNYA, Morgan Stanley continues to hold a constructive stance on the U.S. small- to mid-cap biotechnology segment. The firm highlighted that over 65% of the stocks in this category have seen positive momentum in the past 12 months, driven by advancements in gene therapy, oncology, and rare disease treatments. Notably, companies with multiple late-stage pipelines or strong partnerships—such as those with established pharmaceutical firms—have outperformed the broader market by an average of 18% year-to-date. The revised price target implies a 22% downside from TNYA’s closing price on January 10, 2026, at $23.14. However, the firm maintains a 'positive' rating, suggesting that long-term investors could benefit from potential catalysts in 2026 and 2027, including phase 3 enrollment completion and potential FDA breakthrough designation filings. Market participants are closely watching TNYA’s upcoming data presentations at the 2026 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference. The broader biotech sector, particularly small- and mid-cap stocks, remains sensitive to clinical trial outcomes and capital availability. Morgan Stanley’s updated outlook may influence asset allocation decisions among institutional investors focused on biotech innovation, especially in the pre-commercial and early clinical stages.