At 44 with $1.3 Million in 401(k), Can You Retire in 15 Years Without Further Contributions?

A 44-year-old individual with $1.3 million in their 401(k) is evaluating whether to stop making future contributions while still aiming to retire at age 59. The core question centers on whether the existing balance can sustain retirement without additional savings, assuming standard market returns and withdrawal rates. Financial modeling indicates that a retirement timeline of 15 years may be attainable if the portfolio maintains an average annual return of 5% to 6% and the retiree withdraws no more than 3.5% to 4% annually. This corresponds to a withdrawal range of approximately $45,500 to $52,000 per year, which aligns with conservative retirement income guidelines. Even with no further contributions, the $1.3 million balance could grow to roughly $2.4 million to $2.6 million by age 59, assuming compounded growth. However, this projection hinges on consistent market performance, inflation control, and disciplined spending. Inflation, particularly if it averages above 3%, could erode purchasing power and reduce the real value of withdrawals over time. Market volatility and tax implications also play a role. Withdrawals from a 401(k) are taxed as ordinary income, which could push the retiree into higher tax brackets if withdrawals exceed projected thresholds. Additionally, required minimum distributions (RMDs) at age 73 would begin to impact cash flow if the account remains untouched. Overall, while stopping contributions appears feasible under favorable conditions, maintaining a buffer for unexpected expenses and adjusting withdrawal strategies mid-retirement remains critical to long-term financial stability.