Palantir Technologies' U.S. commercial segment reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, driven by expanded AI adoption across defense, healthcare, and energy sectors, signaling a potential supercycle of sustained growth that could lift the company’s stock performance.
- U.S. commercial revenue grew 62% YoY in Q4 2025
- AI-driven deals now make up over 70% of new commercial contracts
- Annual recurring revenue (ARR) from commercial clients reached $1.2 billion
- Net dollar retention exceeds 130%
- Customer retention rate remained at 96%
- Stock rose 28% in four weeks post-earnings
Palantir Technologies’ U.S. commercial business has emerged as a primary engine of growth, recording a 62% year-over-year revenue surge in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to internal performance metrics. The growth was fueled by increased deployment of its AI-powered platforms—particularly Foundry and Apollo—in sectors including national defense, public health infrastructure, and energy logistics. The company’s commercial revenue now accounts for 68% of total revenue, up from 54% in the same quarter the prior year. This acceleration marks a structural shift from earlier growth patterns, as AI integration has enabled deeper customer engagement and longer contract lifecycles. Over 70% of new commercial deals in Q4 were tied to AI-enabled solutions, with average deal sizes increasing by 35% compared to 2024. The company also reported a 41% increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from commercial clients, reaching $1.2 billion. Market analysts note that Palantir’s ability to scale AI infrastructure without significant marginal costs positions it to capture disproportionate value from the current technological inflection point. The stock has responded, rising 28% in the four weeks following the earnings release, outperforming the broader tech sector. Investors are particularly focused on the company’s growing footprint in high-margin government and enterprise contracts. The momentum extends beyond revenue, with customer retention rates holding steady at 96% and net dollar retention surpassing 130%, indicating strong product stickiness. As AI adoption accelerates across critical infrastructure and supply chain operations, Palantir is well-positioned to leverage its platform architecture for further expansion into global commercial markets.