Merz Declares Iran's Regime 'in Final Days' Amid Escalating Protests

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared on Tuesday that Iran's ruling regime is in its 'final days and weeks' after a surge in nationwide protests that have challenged state authority. His remarks, made during a foreign policy address in Berlin, underscore a sharp escalation in Western political assessments of Iran's internal stability. While no official timeline was offered, the statement reflects mounting concern over the regime's ability to maintain control amid sustained civil unrest. Markets reacted swiftly to the geopolitical warning. Crude oil futures, tracked by CL=F, spiked 3.8% to $87.40 per barrel, reflecting fears of disrupted supply from the Middle East. Gold futures, GC=F, rose 2.1% to $2,345 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with IRX on the rise as risk-off sentiment increased across fixed-income markets. The Iranian rial (USD/IRR) plunged 14.6% against the U.S. dollar, signaling deepening economic distress and a loss of confidence in the central government’s ability to manage both domestic unrest and foreign exchange reserves. Analysts note that the currency's depreciation has accelerated since mid-December, when protest movements first gained momentum in cities including Tehran, Mashhad, and Shiraz. Financial markets across Europe and Asia have adjusted exposure to emerging markets with Middle East ties. Energy firms with operations in the region, including TotalEnergies and Saudi Aramco, are reviewing contingency plans. The geopolitical risk premium has increased across key commodities and emerging-market debt, with spreads widening on sovereign bonds from countries bordering Iran.