A wave of project ramp-ups and capacity expansions across key mining regions is projected to increase global iron ore output to 2.8 billion metric tons by 2026, driven by new mine developments and upgraded infrastructure. The growth will reshape supply dynamics in the steel-intensive markets of Asia and beyond.
- Global iron ore output projected to reach 2.8 billion metric tons in 2026
- Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Phase 3 to add 40 million metric tons annually by 2026
- Vale’s Serra Sul expansion to contribute 25 million metric tons by Q3 2026
- China’s Ping’an Mine to add 18 million metric tons of domestic capacity
- Australia’s share of global output expected to rise to 58% by 2026
- Brazil’s share projected to increase to 22% from 20% in 2024
Global iron ore production is poised to reach a record 2.8 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 2.5 billion metric tons in 2024, according to updated industry forecasts. This expansion is primarily fueled by the ramp-up of the Pilbara Iron Ore Complex in Western Australia, where Rio Tinto has accelerated Phase 3 of its operations, adding 40 million metric tons of annual capacity. The project, now operational at 75% of its target, is expected to fully contribute by mid-2026. In Brazil, Vale's Serra Sul expansion is set to increase output by 25 million metric tons annually, with full commissioning scheduled for Q3 2026. The initiative includes new processing plants and rail infrastructure upgrades, reducing transportation bottlenecks that previously constrained supply. Meanwhile, China’s Ping’an Iron Mine, one of the country’s largest domestic producers, is entering its final expansion phase, adding 18 million metric tons of annual capacity and supporting national steel production goals. The combined effect of these projects will shift global supply patterns, reducing reliance on single-source regions and increasing output flexibility. By 2026, Australia is projected to account for 58% of global production, up from 55% in 2024, while Brazil’s share is expected to grow to 22% from 20%. China’s domestic output is forecast to rise to 18% of the global total, up from 15%, as new mines come online and environmental regulations allow for more controlled mining activities. Market analysts note that increased supply could moderate long-term price volatility, though short-term fluctuations may persist due to port congestion and seasonal factors. Steel producers in Japan, South Korea, and India are already adjusting procurement strategies, with forward contracts signed at 2025 levels to hedge against potential oversupply or logistical delays.