Gold prices remained stable near a record peak in early 2026, supported by persistent U.S. inflation data that reinforced expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The benchmark gold futures contract traded at $2,417.30 per ounce on January 13, 2026, reflecting strong investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- Gold futures traded at $2,417.30 per ounce on January 13, 2026, near a record high.
- U.S. core inflation rose to 3.7% year-over-year in December 2025.
- Market probability of a Fed rate cut in June 2026 increased to 68%.
- Real yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped to 0.83% in early January.
- Global central banks added 220 metric tons to gold reserves in Q4 2025.
- SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recorded $1.8 billion in inflows over two weeks.
Gold prices held steady close to a record high on January 13, 2026, maintaining a level of $2,417.30 per ounce in New York trading, according to publicly available market data. This near-record valuation comes amid renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin lowering interest rates in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a recent uptick in core inflation to 3.7% year-over-year, slightly above the central bank’s 2% target. The 3.7% core inflation figure, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2025, has prompted market participants to reassess the timing of monetary policy easing. While higher inflation typically signals a delay in rate cuts, recent data showing a softening in wage growth and labor market indicators have shifted expectations toward a dovish pivot. Investors now price in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, up from 42% in early January. The rally in gold is closely tied to declining real yields on U.S. Treasury securities, which dropped to a four-month low of 0.83% on January 12. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 3.15% and inflation expectations near 3.3%, the real yield—a key determinant of gold’s appeal—has turned negative, making the non-yielding metal more attractive. Additionally, central bank buying, particularly from China and India, contributed to a net increase of 220 metric tons in global gold reserves during the final quarter of 2025. Market participants across asset classes are adjusting positions in response. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) saw inflows of $1.8 billion over the past two weeks, while the CME Group’s gold futures open interest rose by 11% in January, indicating growing institutional involvement. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against major peers, with the DXY index falling to 102.3 by midday on January 13, further supporting gold’s upward momentum.