BNY CFO Forecasts Constructive 2026 Market Environment Amid Global Economic Shifts

The CFO of BNY Mellon has outlined a constructive market backdrop for 2026, emphasizing favorable macroeconomic indicators and structural improvements in financial market infrastructure. The assessment comes as global equity indices have risen 8.2% year-to-date in 2025, with S&P 500 earnings growth projected at 7.4% for the full year, according to internal modeling. Bond markets have also stabilized, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields averaging 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a peak of 4.8% in early 2024. The CFO highlighted that credit spreads for investment-grade corporates have narrowed to 120 basis points, the tightest level since 2022, signaling improved risk appetite among institutional investors. Additionally, BNY Mellon’s custody assets under management reached $43.6 trillion by year-end 2025, reflecting strong client confidence and growing demand for asset servicing solutions. This growth is driven by increased participation from European and Asian institutional investors seeking diversified portfolios. Market impact is expected to be broad, with equities, fixed income, and alternative assets all benefiting from the improved outlook. Financial institutions, asset managers, and technology platforms supporting capital markets infrastructure are positioned to see elevated volumes and fee income. The firm anticipates a 5.3% increase in transaction volumes across its global network in 2026, particularly in cross-border settlement and ESG-linked instruments. BNY Mellon’s strategic initiatives, including the expansion of its digital custody platform and AI-enhanced compliance tools, are expected to support margin expansion and client retention. The company maintains a target operating margin of 32% for 2026, consistent with its long-term financial framework.