Iran’s Deepening Crisis Stirs Alarm in Moscow as Strategic Alliance Faces Unraveling

Russia is closely monitoring the escalating turmoil in Iran, where inflation has surged past 68% in 2025, unemployment among youth exceeds 42%, and protests have spread across 47 cities since late 2024. These developments threaten the viability of the bilateral partnership that has underpinned Russian access to Middle Eastern energy markets and military coordination. Despite Russia’s support for Iran’s missile and drone programs—evidenced by the delivery of over 150,000 precision-guided munitions between 2022 and 2024—the alliance is showing signs of strain as Iran struggles to maintain internal cohesion. The collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial, which lost 89% of its value against the U.S. dollar in 2025, has further weakened the country’s ability to sustain defense and infrastructure projects. This economic strain is limiting Iran’s capacity to fulfill commitments to Russia, including the joint development of the Chabahar port and the expansion of the Iran-Russia gas pipeline, which had been expected to deliver 25 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027. For Moscow, the potential unraveling of the Iran partnership compounds setbacks from other key alliances, including the weakening of ties with Syria’s government and the diminished role of Belarus in regional coordination. With Iran historically serving as a critical counterweight to Western influence in the region, its decline could force Russia to reassess its military deployments and diplomatic outreach across the Middle East and Central Asia. The implications extend beyond the region: Russian defense contractors, including Rostec and Concern Kalashnikov, have invested heavily in joint ventures with Iranian firms. A breakdown in the alliance could result in stranded assets, missed revenue streams, and a loss of strategic leverage in energy diplomacy, particularly as global markets pivot toward renewable and alternative energy sources.