US Power Grid Operator Downgrades Demand Forecast Amid AI-Driven Growth Skepticism

The Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), which manages grid operations across 15 U.S. states and one Canadian province, announced a significant reduction in its projected electricity demand for 2026. The new forecast now anticipates a 3.4% increase in regional load, down from an earlier projection of 4.8%. This adjustment follows growing scrutiny of AI-related power consumption claims made by tech firms and hyperscalers in late 2025. The revision reflects MISO’s reassessment of data submitted by major data center operators and cloud providers during the 2025-2026 capacity auction cycle. While initial filings suggested AI-driven demand could spike by up to 7 gigawatts in the region by mid-decade, MISO’s analysis found that actual deployment timelines and energy efficiency improvements have delayed rollout. Only 2.1 gigawatts of proposed AI-related load are now expected to be operational by Q3 2026, less than half of what was anticipated in early projections. The downward revision has immediate implications for power generators and infrastructure developers. MISO's updated reliability assessment now indicates that existing supply margins—previously estimated at 9.2%—will remain stable without additional generation builds in 2026. This reduces urgency for new gas-fired and battery storage projects in the region, with several major proposals already under review being placed on hold. Consumers may benefit from slower rate increases as utilities revise capital expenditure plans. However, long-term uncertainty remains for companies relying on accelerated AI expansion narratives, particularly those in the semiconductor and renewable energy space whose funding models assumed rapid grid integration.