As President Donald Trump's approval rating slips to 38% in mid-2026, Republican leaders are shifting policy focus toward economic populism, including proposed tariffs on imports and expanded domestic manufacturing incentives. These moves aim to counter growing Democratic momentum ahead of the November elections.
- Trump's approval rating dropped to 38% in January 2026
- H.R. 1492 proposes 25% tariffs on imports from low-labor-standard countries
- Republican Party allocated $18 million for swing-state campaigns in 2026
- 62% of independents support tariffs only if paired with inflation controls
- S&P 500 dropped 3.1% in January 2026 amid trade policy uncertainty
- U.S. soybean exports projected to decline by 14% under proposed tariffs
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined to 38% in national polling conducted in January 2026, down from 52% at the start of the year, according to multiple independent survey aggregators. This drop has prompted a strategic pivot within the Republican Party toward economic populism, with House Republicans introducing the Made in America Act (H.R. 1492) to impose a 25% tariff on all imported goods from countries with labor standards below U.S. levels. The bill, co-sponsored by 112 Republicans, seeks to reinvest $32 billion in federal funds into domestic supply chains by 2028. The shift reflects a broader attempt to counter Democratic gains in key battleground states. In the 2024 elections, Democrats captured 11 out of 14 swing congressional districts where inflation was above 5%. With inflation stabilizing at 4.3% in December 2025 but still above pre-pandemic levels, Republican strategists are betting that economic nationalism will resonate with working-class voters. The party's National Committee has allocated $18 million to grassroots campaigns in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, prioritizing messaging around job creation and trade protection. Despite these efforts, poll data from early 2026 suggests limited traction. A bipartisan survey of 1,500 registered voters in eight swing states shows 62% of independents support higher tariffs only if paired with measures to control inflation, while 58% of working-class voters in manufacturing districts say they are more concerned about healthcare access than trade policy. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has responded by highlighting Republican opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy provisions, citing a 73% GOP vote against extending the act’s tax credits in December 2025. Market indicators reflect growing uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 3.1% in January amid speculation of new trade barriers, while the dollar index rose 1.8% as foreign investors reassessed U.S. economic stability. Key sectors including technology and agriculture face potential disruption, with the U.S. soybean export market projected to decline by 14% if tariffs on Chinese imports are implemented, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Federal Reserve has signaled it may delay rate cuts until late 2026, citing risks of renewed inflation from protectionist measures.