Betting markets suggest low confidence that Trump-era tariffs will survive Supreme Court review, with BTC-USD and USD/CAD showing heightened volatility. The outcome could reshape trade flows and inflation pressures in key sectors.
- Crypto betting markets assign only a 38% probability to Supreme Court upholding Trump-era tariffs
- BTC-USD dropped 8.3% in five sessions amid rising trade policy uncertainty
- USD/CAD strengthened 2.1% as investors anticipate currency volatility from trade shifts
- SPX corrected 1.2%, with Consumer Staples and Technology sectors underperforming
- Potential tariff rollback could affect $360 billion in Chinese imports, impacting semiconductors and steel
- DXY rose to 107.4, reflecting increased demand for U.S. dollar safe-haven assets
The prospect of a Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump-era tariffs has sparked unease among speculative investors, particularly in digital assets. Despite the constitutional weight of the upcoming review, crypto traders are placing odds against the tariffs' survival, reflecting deep skepticism about their long-term viability under current legal standards. Market indicators reinforce this sentiment: BTC-USD has declined 8.3% over the past five trading sessions, while the USD/CAD exchange rate has strengthened by 2.1% as investors brace for potential trade disruptions. The S&P 500 (SPX) has posted a 1.2% correction, with Consumer Staples and Technology sectors leading losses due to exposure to import-sensitive supply chains. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to 107.4, signaling a flight to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. The crypto betting pool, which tracks implied probabilities of legal outcomes, assigns a 38% chance that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs, down from 55% just one month ago. This shift reflects growing legal concerns over executive overreach and the application of Section 301 of the Trade Act, which authorized the tariffs. A ruling against the tariffs could trigger tariff rollbacks on $360 billion in Chinese imports, affecting industries such as semiconductors, steel, and consumer electronics. Financial markets across asset classes are adjusting to the risk. Energy stocks have seen a 4.7% decline in response to potential shifts in global trade routes, while financials are pricing in elevated credit risk due to inflationary feedback loops. The market’s behavior suggests that political uncertainty is now a primary driver of volatility, surpassing even macroeconomic indicators.