The arrest of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 has sent shockwaves through global oil markets, with Brent crude surging over 12% in two days. Analysts warn of potential disruptions to Venezuela’s oil exports, which previously accounted for approximately 1.8 million barrels per day—making the country a key player in OPEC+ dynamics.
- Brent crude surged to $98.30 per barrel post-arrest, a 12% increase over two days
- Venezuela’s oil output averaged 1.8 million barrels per day in late 2025
- PDVSA controls 97% of Venezuela’s oil production
- U.S. crude imports from Venezuela fell 74% in one week
- Potential 360,000 barrel per day export decline could disrupt OPEC+ supply balance
- Global diesel and gasoline prices rose 5.3% and 4.1% respectively in major markets
The sudden arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has triggered immediate market reactions, with Brent crude futures climbing to $98.30 per barrel by January 17, 2026, marking the largest two-day gain since late 2023. This surge reflects growing concerns over the stability of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and the possibility of production shortfalls in the coming months. Venezuela’s oil output, which had stabilized at around 1.8 million barrels per day in late 2025 following sanctions relief and domestic recovery efforts, now faces uncertainty. The country’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), operates 97% of the nation’s oil production and has historically been central to OPEC+ supply coordination. With Maduro’s removal, speculation is mounting over whether successor leadership will maintain current export agreements or reorient toward non-OPEC+ arrangements. Market analysts estimate that even a 20% reduction in Venezuelan exports—equivalent to 360,000 barrels per day—could tighten global oil supply, particularly if other OPEC+ members fail to offset the shortfall. The United States, which imports approximately 11% of its crude from Venezuela pre-arrest, is now reassessing its import strategy, with imports from the country dropping 74% in the week following the event. Energy firms such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, which have maintained limited operations in Venezuela, are reviewing their exposure. Meanwhile, global benchmark prices for diesel and gasoline have risen by 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively, in major markets including Europe and the U.S. Gulf Coast, signaling early ripple effects in refined product markets.