Goldman Sachs is actively evaluating opportunities in the prediction market sector, according to CEO David Solomon. The move signals a strategic expansion into alternative financial products tied to event forecasting and data-driven outcomes.
- Goldman Sachs is evaluating entry into prediction markets, per CEO David Solomon.
- Internal pilots focus on inflation, central bank policy, and supply chain risks.
- Alternative data and analytics revenue reached $3.2 billion in Q4 2025, up 17% YoY.
- Platform could generate revenue via transaction fees and data licensing.
- Regulatory review by the CFTC is a critical consideration.
- Over 12,000 employees in risk and data science divisions support the initiative.
Goldman Sachs is exploring the development of prediction markets as part of its broader innovation agenda, CEO David Solomon confirmed in a recent internal briefing. While no formal launch has been announced, the bank is assessing regulatory, technological, and risk management frameworks required to support such platforms. The initiative aligns with growing institutional interest in decentralized forecasting tools that aggregate public and expert opinions on economic, geopolitical, and market-related events. Prediction markets—where participants bet on outcomes using real-time pricing signals—have historically been used in sectors like politics, technology, and commodities. Goldman’s potential entry would mark a significant shift in its product offerings, potentially leveraging its existing infrastructure in data analytics, trading systems, and client access. Internal pilots are reportedly underway, focusing on pilot markets for inflation trends, central bank policy shifts, and supply chain disruptions in key regions. The bank’s exploration comes amid rising interest from major financial institutions in behavioral and predictive analytics. In Q4 2025, Goldman reported $3.2 billion in revenue from its alternative data and analytics division, a 17% increase year-over-year, underscoring demand for forward-looking tools. With over 12,000 employees in its risk and data science divisions, the firm is well-positioned to integrate predictive models into a regulated market structure. If launched, the prediction market platform could serve both institutional clients and select high-net-worth individuals, with transaction fees and data licensing as potential revenue streams. Regulatory scrutiny remains a key hurdle, particularly under U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) guidelines, which govern speculative instruments. Goldman is currently consulting with compliance teams and external legal advisors to ensure alignment with existing financial market rules.