Global macro investor Mobius has reduced holdings in gold despite the metal reaching a record $2,485 per ounce in early January 2026, citing growing risks of a U.S. dollar rebound. The shift underscores a pivot toward monetary policy sensitivity in asset allocation.
- Gold hit a record $2,485 per ounce on January 12, 2026
- U.S. dollar index reached 105.4 by January 15, up 4.2% since November 2025
- Federal Reserve’s rate cut probability for first half of 2026 dropped to 32%
- Central banks purchased 1,136 tonnes of gold in 2025, a record high
- GLD ETF recorded $2.1 billion in net outflows during the week ending January 14
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.39% on January 15
Mobius, a prominent global macro investor, has trimmed exposure to gold as the commodity surged past $2,485 per ounce—a new all-time high—on January 12, 2026. The move comes despite strong demand from central banks and institutional investors, signaling a strategic recalibration amid rising expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar. The investor’s decision is rooted in a reevaluation of U.S. monetary policy dynamics. With the Federal Reserve signaling a potential pause in rate cuts by mid-2026 and inflation data holding steady above 3% in December 2025, market pricing now reflects a 68% probability of no rate reductions in the first half of 2026. This scenario has bolstered the U.S. dollar index, which climbed to 105.4 by January 15, up 4.2% from its November 2025 low. Gold’s rally, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases—particularly from China and India—has been notable, with global central banks acquiring 1,136 tonnes in 2025, the highest annual figure on record. However, Mobius now views the rally as increasingly vulnerable to a shift in dollar strength, which could trigger a reversal in gold’s performance. The strategic shift has implications for institutional portfolios and commodity traders. ETFs tracking gold, such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), saw net outflows of $2.1 billion in the week ending January 14, reflecting investor caution. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields, especially the 10-year note, rose to 4.39% on January 15, reinforcing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.