Jonathan Golub Forecasts Strong Market Momentum Into 2026 Amid Structural Shifts

Jonathan Golub of Seaport Research has issued a bullish outlook for the global equity markets in 2026, projecting a 12% year-over-year advance in the S&P 500 index based on current earnings trends and capital spending forecasts. The firm anticipates earnings per share growth of 8.5% for the S&P 500, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in technology, healthcare, and industrials, with Nvidia (NVDA) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) leading sectoral gains. Golub notes that corporate cash reserves have reached $3.2 trillion in the U.S., up 14% from 2024, enabling increased buybacks and strategic M&A activity, which he expects to contribute 3.2 percentage points to index returns. The bullish stance is underpinned by a recalibration of inflation and interest rate expectations, with Golub forecasting the Federal Reserve to reduce the federal funds rate by 125 basis points by Q3 2026, supporting equity valuations. He identifies a structural shift in capital allocation, with technology and clean energy firms accelerating investment—capital expenditures in the tech sector are projected to grow 19% in 2026, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. These trends, combined with improving labor market dynamics, support a sustained expansion in corporate profitability. Market participants are already reacting to the forecast, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling to 14.8, its lowest level since early 2024. Equity derivatives markets show increased call option volume for large-cap growth stocks, particularly in semiconductors and cloud infrastructure. The S&P 500 futures are trading 1.7% above the prior close, reflecting confidence in the 2026 trajectory. Institutional investors are scaling up exposure to U.S. equities, with net inflows of $18.3 billion into U.S. equity ETFs in December 2025, the highest monthly volume since 2022.