Despite a recent upward surge, Bitcoin failed to breach the $100,000 milestone this week, echoing patterns seen during its prolonged 2022 bear market downturn. Analysts warn that sustained momentum remains elusive without structural catalysts.
- Bitcoin reached $97,400 mid-week before settling near $94,200
- Trading volume remained under $35 billion, indicating weak conviction
- Large wallets shed 24,600 BTC over three weeks
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.8%
- ETF inflows fell below $2 billion in January
- Futures open interest dropped 6.2% in one week
Bitcoin climbed nearly 18% over the past seven days, reaching a peak of $97,400 before retreating to around $94,200 by Friday. This rebound mirrored the short-lived rallies observed in late 2022, when the cryptocurrency briefly rose above $20,000 only to collapse again amid persistent selling pressure. The current trajectory suggests speculative interest is driving gains, but not enough institutional or macroeconomic tailwinds to break the psychological barrier at $100,000. Market data indicates Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume has remained below $35 billion—a level consistent with low conviction trades. Meanwhile, futures open interest dipped by 6.2%, signaling reduced leverage and caution among derivatives traders. On-chain metrics show that large wallets (holding over 1,000 BTC) have been net sellers for three consecutive weeks, totaling a cumulative outflow of 24,600 BTC since early January. The failure to clear $100,000 may hinge on broader macro conditions. U.S. Treasury yields have risen to 4.8% for the 10-year note, increasing opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, ETF inflows—though positive in December—have slowed sharply in January, with total asset flows now below $2 billion since the start of the year. Investors and analysts are now scrutinizing whether regulatory clarity or upcoming halving event preparations could rekindle demand. Without such catalysts, the current rally may represent little more than a cyclical bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market sentiment.