Walmart is positioning itself for a potential dividend increase driven by strategic expansion in India and China, two key emerging markets. The move could boost investor confidence amid strengthening retail momentum in the region.
- India and China are projected to contribute up to 12% of Walmart’s global operating income by 2027.
- Flipkart recorded $18.7 billion in GMV in Q4 2025, a 34% year-over-year increase.
- Same-store sales in China rose 21% in 2025 across Walmart’s hypermarkets and Supercentres.
- Walmart generated $24.3 billion in operating cash flow in fiscal 2025.
- Analysts project a 10% to 15% dividend increase if current earnings trends hold.
- International markets now represent 30% of Walmart’s total revenue.
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is under growing scrutiny as analysts speculate a significant dividend uplift may be on the horizon, fueled by accelerating growth in its international operations, particularly in India and China. While no official announcement has been made, internal projections suggest that revenue from these markets could contribute up to 12% of global operating income by 2027, up from 8% in 2023. This expansion is supported by Walmart’s ownership stake in Flipkart, India’s leading e-commerce platform, which reported a 34% year-over-year increase in GMV (gross merchandise volume) in Q4 2025, reaching $18.7 billion. In China, Walmart’s joint ventures with local partners have seen a 21% rise in same-store sales across its hypermarkets and Walmart Supercentres in 2025, contributing to improved regional profitability. The anticipated dividend adjustment is tied to Walmart’s ongoing capital allocation strategy, which aims to return 60% of free cash flow to shareholders by 2026. With the company generating $24.3 billion in operating cash flow in the fiscal year ending January 2025, and international markets now accounting for nearly 30% of total revenue, the financial foundation for a dividend hike appears solid. Analysts at leading investment firms have begun revising their models upward, projecting a 10% to 15% dividend increase if the company maintains current earnings trends. Investors in the consumer staples and retail sectors are closely monitoring Walmart’s trajectory, especially as the broader market reacts to supply chain shifts and emerging market resilience. A dividend hike would not only signal confidence in long-term earnings sustainability but could also draw interest from income-focused portfolios currently seeking stable yields amid volatile macroeconomic conditions.