China's coal output surged to a record 4.5 billion metric tons in 2025, up 4.8% year-on-year, even as domestic coal-fired power generation fell by 2.3% amid expanding renewable capacity. The surge in output highlights growing domestic overcapacity and shifting energy dynamics.
- Coal production reached 4.5 billion metric tons in 2025, a record high.
- Coal consumption for power generation declined 2.3% year-on-year.
- Port stockpiles totaled 158 million tons by end of 2025, up 22% from 2024.
- Domestic coal prices averaged $72 per metric ton in Q4 2025.
- Coal exports reached 105 million tons in 2025.
- State-owned coal firms face declining margins amid overproduction.
China’s coal production hit a historic high of 4.5 billion metric tons in 2025, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous year, according to national energy statistics. This record output occurred despite a 2.3% decline in coal consumption for power generation, signaling a widening gap between production and demand. The data reflects sustained investment in mining infrastructure and state-backed support for key producers, particularly in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang provinces. The divergence between production and consumption is driven by multiple factors. First, increased output from state-owned enterprises, including China National Coal Group and Huaneng Power International’s coal subsidiaries, has outpaced domestic demand. Second, China’s rapid expansion of solar and wind capacity—adding over 120 gigawatts in 2025—reduced reliance on coal for electricity. Despite this, coal remains a critical backup for grid stability. Stockpiles at major ports, including Qinhuangdao and Yantai, reached 158 million tons by year-end, a 22% increase from 2024. This buildup suggests producers are prioritizing inventory over immediate sales, potentially pressuring prices. Domestic coal prices averaged $72 per metric ton in Q4 2025, down 8% from the previous quarter, reflecting weak market sentiment. The trend has implications for China’s climate goals and export markets. While coal exports rose slightly to 105 million tons in 2025, they remain constrained by international environmental policies. Domestic overcapacity may also strain financial performance of coal firms, with several major producers reporting declining margins.