Iron ore futures tumbled more than 6% on Monday as China's steel output fell to its lowest level in eight months, while delays at the Simandou cargo docks in Guinea intensified supply concerns. The drop weighs on major miners including Rio Tinto and Vale.
- China’s crude steel output dropped 4.7% in January 2026, the weakest monthly performance in eight months.
- Iron ore futures fell 6.3% to $84.20 per metric ton on January 19, 2026.
- Simandou cargo dock operations delayed until at least May 2026 due to infrastructure and permitting issues.
- Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) shares fell 4.1%, Vale (VALE3.SA) declined 3.8% on the news.
- Blackstone (BLK) faces renewed scrutiny over commodity infrastructure investments in emerging markets.
- Port inventories in China remain elevated, signaling sustained near-term supply glut.
Iron ore prices collapsed on Monday, with the benchmark Dalian futures contract falling 6.3% to $84.20 per metric ton, its sharpest one-day drop since October 2023. The decline followed fresh data showing China’s crude steel output dropped 4.7% month-on-month in January, marking the weakest performance in eight months. This reduction reflects ongoing weakness in construction and manufacturing demand, key drivers of steel consumption. The downward pressure on iron ore was compounded by new developments at the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, where the first cargo dock is now projected to remain offline until at least May 2026 due to unresolved infrastructure and permitting issues. This delay threatens to disrupt the long-term supply trajectory of one of the world’s largest untapped iron ore reserves, which is jointly developed by China’s Baowu Steel Group and the Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto. The combined impact of weaker demand and supply chain uncertainty has sparked a sharp reevaluation of global iron ore forecasts. The price decline dragged down shares of major miners: Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) dropped 4.1%, while Vale (VALE3.SA) fell 3.8%. Blackstone’s (BLK) exposure to commodity infrastructure also came under scrutiny, with investors questioning the timing of large-scale capital commitments in emerging markets. Traders are now adjusting positions amid growing skepticism about near-term price resilience, especially as inventory levels in Chinese ports remain elevated. The market now prices in a prolonged period of oversupply unless new demand catalysts emerge from infrastructure stimulus or export-led recovery in Asia.