China's Birthrate Hits Historic Low Amid Failed Policy Efforts

China’s birthrate declined to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2025, marking the lowest figure in the country’s modern record-keeping history. This follows a continued downward trend that has persisted since 2016, when the government lifted the one-child policy. Despite introducing financial incentives, extended parental leave, and housing subsidies, fertility rates have not rebounded, signaling deep structural shifts in societal behavior and economic pressures. The number of live births in 2025 totaled 9.01 million, a 5.3% decrease from the previous year and the first time national births fell below 9.1 million since the early 2000s. The decline reflects broader trends including rising education levels, delayed marriage, increasing living costs, and a growing preference for smaller families, particularly among urban millennials and Gen Z cohorts. The implications are far-reaching: China’s working-age population (15–59 years) has now shrunk for 11 consecutive years, and the proportion of citizens aged 65 and older reached 15.7% in 2025—exceeding the UN's threshold for an aging society. Experts warn that without significant demographic intervention, the country’s long-term economic growth, social welfare systems, and national security posture could face mounting strain. Market participants and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation, with labor shortages already being reported in manufacturing hubs like Guangdong and Jiangsu. The government has signaled potential new measures, including expanded childcare subsidies and stricter enforcement of workplace gender equity, but their effectiveness remains uncertain amid entrenched socioeconomic barriers.