A deceleration in Reliance Retail's sales growth has prompted major brokerages to revise downward their target prices for Reliance Industries, highlighting mounting domestic challenges amid ongoing geopolitical headwinds.
- Reliance Retail’s Q3 FY26 sales grew 12.3% YoY, down from 18.7% in prior year
- Three major brokerages reduced Reliance Industries’ target price by average 14%
- New target range: ₹3,100–₹3,300 per share, down from ₹3,800
- Stock fell ~9% from January 2026 highs
- Competitors like Amazon India and Tata Digital gaining traction in tier-2/3 markets
- Inflation and consumer spending shifts affecting retail margin performance
Reliance Retail, India’s largest retail entity, reported a 12.3% year-on-year increase in sales for the fiscal quarter ending December 2025—down from 18.7% in the same period a year earlier. This marked slowdown has raised concerns among equity analysts about the company’s ability to sustain momentum amid rising competition and shifting consumer spending patterns. The decline in growth has triggered a wave of revisions across investment banks, with three top-tier brokerages lowering their price targets on Reliance Industries (ticker: RELIANCE) by an average of 14% over the past month. The revised targets now range between ₹3,100 and ₹3,300 per share, down from previous highs of ₹3,800. Investors are increasingly concerned about macroeconomic pressures within India, including inflationary trends that have dampened discretionary spending and squeezed margins at large-scale retailers. Simultaneously, new entrants such as Tata Digital and Amazon India have expanded their footprint in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, capturing market share in value-oriented segments. The stock has reacted accordingly, shedding approximately 9% since early January 2026, underperforming both the broader Nifty 50 index and its peers in the consumer staples sector. Analysts note that while Reliance Industries remains a dominant player in energy and telecom, its retail arm now faces a critical inflection point in maintaining profitability and expansion velocity.