Crude oil futures climbed over 6% in early trading as geopolitical risks intensified, with markets reacting to updated intelligence suggesting Iran may soon achieve nuclear breakout capability. The surge marks the sharpest one-day jump in over a year.
- Brent crude rose 6.3% to $98.00 per barrel
- WTI crude reached $94.20 per barrel
- Iran reportedly enriched uranium to 60% purity
- IAEA confirmed enrichment levels exceed JCPOA limits
- Market estimates now assign 70% probability of supply disruption in 90 days
- Shipping insurance premiums up 12% for Middle East routes
Global oil markets reacted sharply on Friday as benchmark Brent crude surged past $98 per barrel, marking a 6.3% increase in early trading. The spike followed unverified reports indicating that Iran has completed the final stages of enriching uranium to 60% purity—a level far exceeding civilian use and just short of weapons-grade. This development has raised concerns that Tehran could rapidly produce a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran has exceeded the 3.67% uranium enrichment limit set by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), though it stopped short of confirming breakout status. Despite the lack of official verification, market participants quickly priced in escalating risk, with WTI crude rising to $94.20 per barrel. Analysts note that even a temporary disruption in Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes—key to global oil flows—could trigger a 15% to 20% spike in prices. Energy traders have begun adjusting portfolios, with long positions in crude futures increasing by 14% over the past 48 hours. Major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have signaled readiness to increase output to stabilize supply, though production capacity constraints limit rapid response. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury officials have begun contingency planning for potential sanctions enforcement, including asset freezes on Iranian energy firms. The rally has rippled through related markets, with natural gas prices in Europe rising 9% and global shipping insurance premiums increasing by 12% for vessels transiting the Middle East. Investors are now factoring in a 70% probability of a major supply disruption within the next 90 days, up from 35% a week ago.