U.S. President Donald Trump's public announcement of expanded combat operations against Iranian targets on February 28, 2026, triggered immediate market reactions, with Brent crude surging over 12% to $118 per barrel. The move heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a critical oil-producing region.
- Brent crude surged to $118.30 per barrel on February 28, 2026, after Trump’s announcement of combat operations against Iran.
- Iran exports approximately 4.3 million barrels per day of crude, with 20% of global oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- A 1.8 million bpd supply disruption could occur if key infrastructure is damaged or shipping lanes are blocked.
- U.S. Navy has deployed three carrier strike groups to the Persian Gulf region.
- CME Group’s oil volatility index indicates a 38% chance of full-scale conflict within 90 days.
- WTI crude reached $112.60 per barrel, while European natural gas prices rose 8.7%.
Global oil markets reacted sharply to President Donald Trump’s televised statement from Palm Beach, Florida, on February 28, 2026, in which he declared the initiation of targeted military strikes against Iranian missile facilities and naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement, released via Truth Social, cited Iran’s recent drone attacks on Israeli infrastructure as justification for a broader offensive. Within hours, Brent crude futures climbed to $118.30 per barrel—the highest level since late 2022—driven by concerns over potential closures of key shipping lanes and damage to oil infrastructure. The surge in crude prices reflects mounting anxiety over the stability of oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Iran controls approximately 4.3 million barrels per day of crude exports, and even partial disruption could reduce global supply by 1.8 million bpd—equivalent to roughly 2% of global demand. Analysts note that the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, remains especially vulnerable. The U.S. Navy has already deployed three carrier strike groups to the region, increasing the risk of escalation. Energy markets have also seen ripple effects. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $112.60 per barrel, while natural gas prices in Europe jumped 8.7% on fears of broader regional instability. Refineries in Asia and Europe are reassessing supply chains, with major traders like Vitol and Trafigura adjusting contracts to factor in higher insurance premiums and rerouting shipments through the Suez Canal. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that sustained conflict could push global oil prices above $130 per barrel. Investors are now pricing in a 38% probability of a full-scale conflict between the U.S. and Iran within the next 90 days, according to CME Group’s oil volatility index. The geopolitical risk premium is now embedded in forward curves, affecting everything from airline fuel hedging to commodity derivatives trading. Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. Defense Department statements and Iranian missile defense capabilities for signs of de-escalation.