On February 28, 2026, 15-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to a record low, while 30-year rates approached their lowest level in over five years, signaling a major shift in housing affordability and financial market dynamics.
- 15-year fixed mortgage rate reached a record low of 5.87% on February 28, 2026
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.12%, near its lowest level since 2021
- 10-year Treasury yield declined to 3.89%, driving bond market gains
- TLT rose 1.8% on the day, reflecting strong demand for long-duration Treasuries
- SPY and IYR both posted gains, signaling broad market confidence in lower rates
- Refinancing activity and home sales are expected to increase in response to lower borrowing costs
On February 28, 2026, mortgage rates across major terms reached pivotal levels, with the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage hitting a record low of 5.87%, reflecting sustained strength in bond market demand and declining Treasury yields. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage followed closely behind, averaging 6.12%—its lowest point since early 2021 and just 0.05 percentage points above a multi-year trough. These movements underscore a broad-based decline in long-term borrowing costs, driven by weakening inflation data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting. The drop in mortgage rates is having immediate implications for consumers and the housing sector. With refinancing costs now significantly lower, homeowners are increasingly evaluating rate takeout opportunities, particularly those with existing loans above 7%. Refinancing activity is expected to surge in the coming weeks, potentially lifting home sales volumes in a market that has seen stagnation over the last 18 months. The shift also benefits first-time buyers, though affordability remains constrained by elevated home prices in many metropolitan areas. Financial markets reacted swiftly. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.89%, contributing to a rally in the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which rose 1.8% intraday, and a modest 0.5% gain in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Real estate investment trusts (REITs), tracked by the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (IYR), posted a 1.2% increase as lower borrowing costs improve property financing and valuation metrics. The bond market's rally suggests a continued preference for fixed-income assets amid expectations of lower future inflation and potential rate cuts later in 2026.