Sasol Limited (SSL) is emerging as a compelling investment opportunity, driven by a robust turnaround strategy, improved cash flow generation, and structural advantages in low-carbon energy solutions. The company’s recent operational upgrades and asset rationalization are setting the stage for sustained profitability.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 32% in Q4 2025 to $1.4 billion
- Sasol committed $1.2 billion to renewable energy and carbon capture projects
- Synthetic fuels output up 18% YoY, contributing 27% of Q4 2025 earnings
- Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 2.1x by end-2025
- Share price up 28% YTD 2025, with a $200 million buyback announced in January 2026
- Scope 1 emissions target: 15% reduction by 2030
Sasol Limited (SSL) is executing a transformative plan to reposition itself as a leader in integrated energy and chemicals, with a clear focus on long-term value creation. The company reported a 32% increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025, reaching $1.4 billion, fueled by higher hydrocarbon prices and improved plant efficiency at its South African facilities. This marks the third consecutive quarter of EBITDA growth, signaling a durable recovery from prior operational challenges. A key driver of the bull case is Sasol’s strategic shift toward lower-carbon alternatives. The company has committed $1.2 billion to expand its renewable energy portfolio and carbon capture projects, including a 300 MW solar farm in the Northern Cape and a pilot carbon capture unit at its Secunda complex. These initiatives align with global decarbonization trends and are expected to reduce Scope 1 emissions by 15% by 2030, enhancing long-term regulatory resilience. Market dynamics favor Sasol’s hybrid business model. With global crude oil prices averaging $87 per barrel in 2025, and demand for synthetic fuels and specialty chemicals rising, Sasol’s integrated production chain offers a competitive edge. The company’s synthetic fuels output rose 18% year-on-year, contributing 27% of total earnings in Q4 2025. Additionally, Sasol’s equity stake in the Kusile Power Station provides a stable revenue stream and supports its energy transition goals. Investors are responding positively: SSL’s share price has risen 28% since the start of 2025, outperforming the broader energy sector. Rating agencies have upgraded Sasol’s credit outlook to stable, citing improved debt metrics—net debt to EBITDA now stands at 2.1x, down from 3.6x in 2023. This financial strength enables further reinvestment in innovation and shareholder returns, including a $200 million share buyback program announced in January 2026.