TD Cowen Adjusts AvePoint Price Target Down to $16 Amid Market Reassessment

TD Cowen has revised its price target for AvePoint Inc. (AVPT) to $16, down from $17, citing evolving market conditions and increased competition within the enterprise data management space. The firm noted that while AvePoint maintains a strong position in SharePoint and Microsoft 365 data protection, macroeconomic pressures and slower-than-expected adoption of its newer cloud-native solutions are influencing the revised outlook. The adjustment reflects a more measured view on the company’s ability to sustain high growth rates in the current environment. AvePoint reported revenue of $184.3 million for fiscal year 2024, representing a 12% year-over-year increase. However, the company’s non-GAAP operating margin declined to 18.6% in the same period, down from 21.2% in 2023, signaling rising operational costs and investment in product development. These trends have prompted analysts to reassess valuation metrics, particularly as the company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio remains elevated relative to peers in the cybersecurity and SaaS infrastructure category. The price target revision impacts investor sentiment, with AVPT stock showing a 2.3% decline in after-hours trading following the announcement. Institutional investors and fund managers are now reevaluating allocation strategies, particularly those focused on high-growth cloud software stocks. The move also underscores growing scrutiny on SaaS companies with significant reliance on Microsoft ecosystem integrations, where competitive pressures from vendors like Veeam and Rubrik remain intense. Market participants will be closely monitoring AvePoint’s Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled for late May, for signs of renewed expansion in its data governance and compliance product lines. Analysts are particularly interested in subscription revenue growth and customer retention rates as key indicators of long-term resilience.