Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is emerging as a compelling long-term investment opportunity, driven by robust global demand for agricultural inputs, sustained crop prices, and strategic supply chain advantages. The company's integrated model and exposure to key fertilizer markets suggest significant upside potential.
- Global fertilizer demand grew 3.2% in 2025, reaching 220 million metric tons
- Nutrien generated $21.4 billion in revenue and $7.3 billion in fertilizer EBITDA in fiscal 2025
- Potash prices averaged $480 per metric ton in Q4 2025, up 18% YoY
- Nutrien’s potash capacity is 17 million metric tons annually, with 80% under long-term contracts
- Earnings per share projected at $9.40 for fiscal 2026, up from $7.85 in 2025
- NTR shares rose 22% over 12 months through February 2026
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR), the world’s largest producer and distributor of crop nutrients, is poised for accelerated growth as global demand for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers continues to outpace supply. With agricultural production under increasing pressure from climate volatility and population growth, demand for high-yield inputs remains structurally strong. In 2025, global fertilizer consumption reached over 220 million metric tons, a 3.2% increase year-over-year, with emerging markets in Asia and Latin America accounting for nearly 60% of the growth. The company’s diversified portfolio, which includes operations across North America, Europe, and Australia, provides resilience against regional disruptions. Nutrien reported $21.4 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, with fertilizer segment EBITDA exceeding $7.3 billion—a 14% increase from the prior year. This performance was underpinned by strong pricing power, with potash prices averaging $480 per metric ton in Q4 2025, up 18% from the same quarter in 2024. Supply constraints further bolster the bull case. Global potash output capacity growth has lagged behind demand, with only two major new projects—K-3 in Canada and a joint venture in Morocco—expected to come online before 2028. Meanwhile, Nutrien’s own potash production capacity stands at approximately 17 million metric tons annually, with over 80% of its output committed under long-term contracts at fixed or escalator-based pricing. The market reaction reflects growing confidence. NTR’s share price rose 22% in the 12 months leading up to February 2026, outpacing the S&P 500’s 8% gain. Analysts project earnings per share of $9.40 for fiscal 2026, up from $7.85 in 2025, supported by ongoing cost optimization and strategic investments in low-carbon ammonia production. Investors in agriculture, commodities, and energy sectors should monitor NTR’s performance as a barometer for global food security and input inflation trends.