Investors are focused on Friday’s February nonfarm payrolls report and a wave of major earnings from Apple, Microsoft, and other tech giants, with potential implications for Fed policy and sector performance across SPX, DJIA, and NDX.
- February nonfarm payrolls expected at 185,000 jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%
- Fed rate cut probability now 58% for June, up from 45% last week
- Apple (AAPL) expected to report $94B in revenue, Microsoft (MSFT) $68.5B
- Azure revenue forecasted to grow 22% YoY at Microsoft
- Nasdaq-100 (NDX) up 12% YTD, driven by tech earnings momentum
- SPX and DJIA likely to react to inflation and hiring trends
Markets are entering a pivotal week as traders await the February U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a gain of 185,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.1%. This data will be the primary catalyst for shifting expectations on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with market pricing now reflecting a 58% probability of a June rate cut, up from 45% last week. The earnings calendar is equally packed, with Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) reporting on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Analysts anticipate Apple’s quarterly revenue to reach $94 billion, driven by strong iPhone demand and services growth, while Microsoft is expected to report $68.5 billion in revenue, with Azure cloud revenue projected to grow 22% year-over-year. These results will be closely watched as bellwethers for the broader technology sector, which has contributed significantly to the Nasdaq-100’s (NDX) 12% rally in 2026. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are also under scrutiny, as consumer and industrial stocks react to inflation data and supply chain resilience metrics. Any deviation from consensus estimates could trigger volatility, especially after the S&P 500 broke above its 200-day moving average last week, signaling bullish momentum. Market participants are positioning for heightened movement, with options volume surge in AAPL and MSFT contracts, while Treasury yields have edged up, reflecting a slight risk-off shift ahead of the data. Financials and industrials are particularly sensitive to the jobs report, as hiring trends influence credit demand and capital expenditure plans.