Indian Refiners Resume Russian Oil Purchases Amid Escalating Iran Supply Disruptions

Indian refiners are restarting purchases of Russian crude oil, reversing a temporary pause in imports, as supply disruptions from Iran intensify amid escalating regional tensions. The move comes after Iran’s key export routes faced repeated delays, reducing crude availability in Asia and prompting Indian buyers to seek alternative sources. Russian oil, previously sidelined due to sanctions, is now being re-evaluated for its competitive pricing and logistical flexibility. The resurgence in Indian demand for Russian crude has already begun to influence global benchmarks. Brent crude futures, tracked by BZ=F, rose by 3.2% to $89.40 per barrel in early March 2026, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), tracked by CL=F, climbed to $85.70 amid concerns over tightening supply. The volatility index, ^VIX, jumped to 21.4 — the highest level since late 2024 — reflecting heightened market anxiety over potential supply shocks. India’s top refiners, including Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation, are reportedly securing 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude through spot deals and long-term contracts. This volume represents a 45% increase from pre-crisis levels and could shift global crude flows, particularly affecting European and U.S. suppliers who once dominated Indian imports. The surge in demand is also driving up freight rates for Russian oil shipments through the Northern Sea Route. The realignment has broader implications for energy pricing and geopolitical risk. As India re-enters the Russian crude market, it signals a growing willingness to absorb sanctioned oil, potentially undermining international sanctions regimes. The shift may also pressure OPEC+ to reconsider production adjustments, given rising demand from non-Western markets. Energy analysts now project Brent crude could reach $95 by mid-2026 if supply constraints persist.