Gasoil futures jumped 18% on March 2, 2026, outpacing crude oil gains, as a major strike at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery disrupted key fuel production. The surge reflects growing supply concerns amid escalating regional tensions with Iran.
- Gasoil futures (HO=F) surged 18% to $124.80 per barrel on March 2, 2026
- Crude oil (CL=F) rose 6.2% to $92.30, underperforming gasoil
- Ras Tanura refinery strike cut refined output by 1.2 million barrels per day
- ^VIX climbed to 34.7, reflecting elevated market risk
- Gasoil’s premium over crude hit $32.50 per barrel—the highest since 2022
- Refiners in Europe and Asia reporting strained gasoil inventories
Gasoil futures (HO=F) rose sharply to $124.80 per barrel on March 2, 2026, marking an 18% increase over the prior week, while crude oil (CL=F) climbed 6.2% to $92.30. The divergence underscores growing anxiety over diesel and heating fuel availability, particularly in Europe and Asia. The spike followed a 72-hour strike at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery—the kingdom’s largest—cutting output by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of refined products, including gasoil. The strike, triggered by labor disputes over wage reforms, coincided with heightened military posturing near the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has conducted naval drills and warned of potential disruptions to shipping lanes. The situation has amplified fears of supply chain fragility in a region responsible for nearly 30% of global crude exports. The volatility index (^VIX) climbed to 34.7, its highest level since late 2024, signaling increased market unease. Refiners in Germany, South Korea, and India have already reported tighter gasoil inventories, with some scrambling to reroute shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Mediterranean. Analysts note that gasoil’s premium over crude has widened to $32.50 per barrel—the highest since 2022—indicating a structural imbalance in the refined products market. Energy traders are now pricing in a higher probability of sustained supply disruptions. The disruption at Ras Tanura, combined with the potential for retaliatory actions in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, has triggered a wave of hedging activity. Shipping insurers are increasing premiums for vessels transiting the region, and several European power plants have announced contingency plans to switch to coal. The global energy sector is bracing for further volatility if regional tensions escalate beyond current levels.